It's a massive day in the season for Chelsea Football Club today.
Mauricio Pochettino's men have a chance to turn their campaign around by winning the League Cup this afternoon, although there is one problem: they'll have to beat Liverpool to do it
However, after their draw away to Manchester City last weekend, there's no reason why the Blues – who lost to the Anfield outfit twice at Wembley in 2022 – can't go one better this afternoon.
Position
Player
GK
Edouard Mendy
CB
Trevoh Chalobah
CB
Thiago Silva
CB
Antonio Rudiger
RM
Cesar Azpilicueta
CM
N'Golo Kante
CM
Mateo Kovacic
LM
Marcos Alonso
AM
Mason Mount
AM
Christian Pulisic
ST
Kai Havertz
It's going to be a backs-against-the-walls kind of performance yet again, and with the chances likely to be few and far between, it would make sense to make one change to the starting lineup.
Nicolas Jackson's game vs Manchester City in numbers
Yes, the starter Pochettino should look to drop from his lineup today is Senegalese international Nicolas Jackson.
Now, this might seem harsh off the back of a reasonably impressive showing from the youngster against City last week, but there is a reason – his finishing.
It was something noted by the Standard's Nizaar Kinsella, who, despite awarding him a 7/10 for his display, wrote that he 'squandered a one-on-one with Ederson,' a fact reflected in his statistics from the game.
In his 82 minutes of action, the Djibonker-born forward registered an expected goal figure of 0.40, had one shot on target, missed one big chance, succeeded in one of his four dribbles and lost the ball 14 times.
Minutes
82'
Goals
0
Expected Goals
0.40
Assists
1
Shots
1
Big Chances Missed
1
Dribbles Attempted (Successful)
4 (1)
Possession Lost
14
Ultimately, while he can be, as John Terry said, "a right handful" for opposition defenders, his tendency to miss chances could be a significant issue in a one-off cup game, so he might be more effective coming off the bench.
Who Pochettino should start instead of Jackon
Chelsea, like many other sides in the league, has quite an extensive injury list at present, which certainly hinders Pochettino's ability to tinker. However, there are still several options at his disposal.
He could move Cole Palmer up top, although starting him out wide or deeper in midfield means he can have more influence over the game. Likewise, Raheem Sterling could play as a false nine, although his best performances – such as the home game against City – have come when he starts out on the left.
That leaves summer signing Christopher Nkunku as the most suitable option, and based on his goals record in Germany – 70 goals and 56 assists in 172 games – and his underlying numbers in England, he's also the best option.
Now, the French "monster", as talent scout Jacek Kulig described him, is not an out-and-out striker, but he has played the position before, and while he also missed a chance to score at the Etihad, he has overperformed his expected league goals figure across his entire career – something Jackson has not done.
Nkunku
Season
Jackson
20 Goals (15.59xg)
2021/22
0 Goals (0.81xg)
16 Goals (16.29xg)
2022/23
12 Goals (8.56xg)
2 Goals (1.69xg)
2023/24
7 Goals (12.27xg)
38 Goals (33.57xg)
Total
19 Goals (21.64xg)
Moreover, when adding up this season, last season and the previous season, the dynamic forward scored 38 league goals from an expected figure of 33.57.
In contrast, Jackson has scored 19 league goals from an expected figure of 21.64, and this season alone, he is underperforming by 5.27 compared to Nknku's overperformance of 0.31.
Finally, the former RB Leipzig star also has experience of scoring against Liverpool, as he was the only Chelsea player to lay a glove on the Reds in their 4-1 mauling at Anfield last month.
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Ultimately, Jackson is starting to show signs that he can hack it at the top level, but in a one-off final, Pochettino is better off starting a clinical player with more experience and a better track record of putting the ball in the back of the net.